Well after this Travis Snider trade I thought I'd update this...
Pittsburgh Pirates trade middle/low tier prospect to Kansas City Royals for Jose Mijares
By losing Lincoln, a hole is opened in the bullpen. Bryan Morris can handle the job but I'd be more comfortable with a lefty. Mijares is just that and has a sub 2.20 ERA. We've been linked to him by John Perrotto as well. I don't know any other lefty relievers on the market so I'll throw this out there but we could also easily do nothing more today.
Other players to watch:
All lefty relievers on the market- don't know any others but I'm sure we're calling. Maybe on some righties too
Juan Pierre- Speedster with almost identical stats to Victorino. Just much cheaper. Perfect lead off guy to platoon with Snider/Presley/Marte
Any other possible bench player- Mercer/Sutton have overstayed their welcome and Mercer can be optioned. Probably would be an infield bench player.
Kevin Correia- I think we keep him now with the pitching woes we've been having and only way we trade him is in a deal for a bat or bench player
Giving you news, analysis, and predictions for all Pittsburgh sports. Follow me on twitter @Justin_Broyles9
Monday, July 30, 2012
Friday, July 27, 2012
Trade Profiles: Vernon Wells
I'm sure a lot of you know this name. Wells was a superstar with the Blue Jays then was traded to the Angels and quietly has had some productive years. He hasn't been in a bunch of trade rumors this year because he's been on the DL. But with Hunter, Trumbo, Trout, Bourjos, there's just no room for him. So could he be a good trade target for the Pirates?
I see Wells sort of like the Soriano situation. Wells just has less power (but not weak), is younger, and doesn't have a no trade clause. He's been sidelined since May with a thumb injury but is coming back. He hit .244 with 6 HRs 12 RBIs and an OPS just over .700 before going down in limited action. He hit 25 HRs last year but carried an OPS lower than .700 and an avg. of .218. That will probably go up in the NL but that's just yikes. One thing I was surprised to learn though is that Wells is not as great a defender as I thought. He's averaged over his career to save -12 runs per year from the outfield. That's not good at all. I will say that I've seen him make some great plays in the outfield but that's still a concern. Then again, it can't be worse than Sutton/Jones platoon out there. Jones needs to play first. Wells also has a HUGE contract, much like Soriano. He's owed close to $40 million until 2014. The Angels would have to pay almost all of his contract (like the Cubs and Soriano) just to start a conversation.
Would I mind Wells? No not at all if the scouts believe he can turn his game around and hit for a better OPS in the NL. I'd still rather have Soriano but if we could do a trade straight up Kevin Correia for Wells and a lot of cash (Joel Sherman suggests this), I would do it.
I see Wells sort of like the Soriano situation. Wells just has less power (but not weak), is younger, and doesn't have a no trade clause. He's been sidelined since May with a thumb injury but is coming back. He hit .244 with 6 HRs 12 RBIs and an OPS just over .700 before going down in limited action. He hit 25 HRs last year but carried an OPS lower than .700 and an avg. of .218. That will probably go up in the NL but that's just yikes. One thing I was surprised to learn though is that Wells is not as great a defender as I thought. He's averaged over his career to save -12 runs per year from the outfield. That's not good at all. I will say that I've seen him make some great plays in the outfield but that's still a concern. Then again, it can't be worse than Sutton/Jones platoon out there. Jones needs to play first. Wells also has a HUGE contract, much like Soriano. He's owed close to $40 million until 2014. The Angels would have to pay almost all of his contract (like the Cubs and Soriano) just to start a conversation.
Would I mind Wells? No not at all if the scouts believe he can turn his game around and hit for a better OPS in the NL. I'd still rather have Soriano but if we could do a trade straight up Kevin Correia for Wells and a lot of cash (Joel Sherman suggests this), I would do it.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
New Pirates Trade Predictions
Since the Wandy Rodriguez trade and Upton news I think it's time to change it up. After seeing how the Pirates went about the Rodriguez deal I think I've got a good idea about what's happening next.
Pittsburgh Pirates trade Kevin Correia to the Baltimore Orioles for a prospect(s)
I'm more convinced after the Wandy trade then ever that Correia will be traded. I think he's the obvious man out of the rotation and being he's pitching for a contract I'd want to give him a chance on another team and get something for him. And being he's on fire in his past few starts I think we could get good value for him maybe as a piece to get a bat (I could see him going to Cleveland in a deal for Shin-Soo Choo) but I think this is more likely. The Orioles are looking for pitching and we can repay them for the Derrek Lee trade last year. I don't know how good a return would be so I'll leave it at prospect(s).
Pittsburgh Pirates trade 2 low tier prospects to the Chicago Cubs for Alfonso Soriano
Surprise! I'm sure many of you didn't expect us to get Wandy (including myself) but we did. Alfonso will be the same situation. I've heard Soriano mentioned as a target of the Rays but no one else. Just as the Astros have wanted Wandy gone for years, the same goes for Alfonso. They both make big money and limiting their team's pay roll flexibility. We got Wandy and Houston paying his deal. Alfonso could be next with the Cubs paying him. If you read my profile on Soriano, you'd know that he's been mashing the ball with better stats than Hunter Pence and is a sound defender even at age 36. He's a pure salary dump (like Wandy) and is under control through 2014 (like Wandy). And like the Wandy trade the Cubs will eat the almost $45 million left on his contract. I've even heard that they'd eat so much that all we'd have to pay would be $3 million a year. Not bad for Soriano who hasn't shown any type of decline in his power numbers. I think he's a cheaper alternative to a Pence or Choo with much more power which is what we need. Even if he flops after this year, $3 mill isn't bad considering Barmes is making $5.5 mill next year. He'll be 38 at contract's end and by that time Josh Bell or Gregory Polanco should be ready to come up and take over. It's the same risk as Wandy was just this is a bat. I can't ignore these similarities and have to think its a stronger possibility than trading say a Marte or Alen Hanson for 1 1/2 years of Choo or Pence. It makes sense. Only roadblock is his full no-trade clause but I don't know why he'd miss a chance to jump into a pennant race. This will also allow the Cubs to finally repay us for the Aramis and Grabow deals lol.
If you want more information and stats on Soriano I suggest you read his trade profile.
Pittsburgh Pirates trade Kevin Correia to the Baltimore Orioles for a prospect(s)
I'm more convinced after the Wandy trade then ever that Correia will be traded. I think he's the obvious man out of the rotation and being he's pitching for a contract I'd want to give him a chance on another team and get something for him. And being he's on fire in his past few starts I think we could get good value for him maybe as a piece to get a bat (I could see him going to Cleveland in a deal for Shin-Soo Choo) but I think this is more likely. The Orioles are looking for pitching and we can repay them for the Derrek Lee trade last year. I don't know how good a return would be so I'll leave it at prospect(s).
Pittsburgh Pirates trade 2 low tier prospects to the Chicago Cubs for Alfonso Soriano
Surprise! I'm sure many of you didn't expect us to get Wandy (including myself) but we did. Alfonso will be the same situation. I've heard Soriano mentioned as a target of the Rays but no one else. Just as the Astros have wanted Wandy gone for years, the same goes for Alfonso. They both make big money and limiting their team's pay roll flexibility. We got Wandy and Houston paying his deal. Alfonso could be next with the Cubs paying him. If you read my profile on Soriano, you'd know that he's been mashing the ball with better stats than Hunter Pence and is a sound defender even at age 36. He's a pure salary dump (like Wandy) and is under control through 2014 (like Wandy). And like the Wandy trade the Cubs will eat the almost $45 million left on his contract. I've even heard that they'd eat so much that all we'd have to pay would be $3 million a year. Not bad for Soriano who hasn't shown any type of decline in his power numbers. I think he's a cheaper alternative to a Pence or Choo with much more power which is what we need. Even if he flops after this year, $3 mill isn't bad considering Barmes is making $5.5 mill next year. He'll be 38 at contract's end and by that time Josh Bell or Gregory Polanco should be ready to come up and take over. It's the same risk as Wandy was just this is a bat. I can't ignore these similarities and have to think its a stronger possibility than trading say a Marte or Alen Hanson for 1 1/2 years of Choo or Pence. It makes sense. Only roadblock is his full no-trade clause but I don't know why he'd miss a chance to jump into a pennant race. This will also allow the Cubs to finally repay us for the Aramis and Grabow deals lol.
If you want more information and stats on Soriano I suggest you read his trade profile.
Trade Profiles: Hunter Pence
Yes Hunter Pence is back. There were rumors that the Phillies could put him on the block but the Cole Hamels signing just blew them up. Add in that Jose Cruz Jr. is tweeting that "Pence says his days as a Phillie are numbered" and it's just an all out frenzy. He's been linked to the Pirates by big names like Jayson Stark (speculation) and just today by John Perrotto (fact) so lets profile him shall we?
Pence is considered a star and is putting up stellar numbers again this year. He has 17 HRs a .267 avg. 59 RBIs and a .781 OPS. Not astonishing but the Phillies are having a poor season. Before you all say he's perfect, I want you to look at another player. He has 19 HRs, 58 RBIs, .274 avg. and an OPS over .800. You know who it is? You would if you read my last trade profile that many of you probably skipped over because of the name. That's Alfonso Soriano (you all will probably go read his profile now after you finish reading this). He's playing on a worse team and is putting up better stats. I don't know if giving up Starling Marte is worth Pence. Another concern is that he's been inconsistent in the field this year. I don't put much into that because he's been great over the past few years. He's arbitration eligible for next year so he's not a rental but can the Pirates pay what he's going to be worth?
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have Pence here but I wouldn't give up Starling Marte for him. Alen Hanson is another question but I'd probably do it. Honestly the odds of this trade depend on if the Phillies want value, or a pure salary dump. The salary dump works in the Pirates favor, but I'd say it's not likely. So what I'm saying, don't get too excited. I don't think Pence will be in a Pirates uniform this year even though he'd be a nice fit.
Pence is considered a star and is putting up stellar numbers again this year. He has 17 HRs a .267 avg. 59 RBIs and a .781 OPS. Not astonishing but the Phillies are having a poor season. Before you all say he's perfect, I want you to look at another player. He has 19 HRs, 58 RBIs, .274 avg. and an OPS over .800. You know who it is? You would if you read my last trade profile that many of you probably skipped over because of the name. That's Alfonso Soriano (you all will probably go read his profile now after you finish reading this). He's playing on a worse team and is putting up better stats. I don't know if giving up Starling Marte is worth Pence. Another concern is that he's been inconsistent in the field this year. I don't put much into that because he's been great over the past few years. He's arbitration eligible for next year so he's not a rental but can the Pirates pay what he's going to be worth?
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have Pence here but I wouldn't give up Starling Marte for him. Alen Hanson is another question but I'd probably do it. Honestly the odds of this trade depend on if the Phillies want value, or a pure salary dump. The salary dump works in the Pirates favor, but I'd say it's not likely. So what I'm saying, don't get too excited. I don't think Pence will be in a Pirates uniform this year even though he'd be a nice fit.
Trade Profiles: Alfonso Soriano
I know what a lot of you are thinking right now... Why the hell would we want Alfonso Soriano? And I'm sure a lot of you probably would stop reading right about now, but Soriano believe it or not could be our best option.
Soriano is killing it again with his bat this year like usual. He has 19 HRs 58 RBIs a .274 avg. and .827 OPS. That's perfect numbers for a cleanup guy. Batting has never been the problem for Alfonso but a lot of people will tell you he's a below average fielder including me but I was surprised to learn that this is not the case. This year playing LF Soriano has been worth 3 runs above average and has also saved 3 runs above average from LF. It's a fluke right? Think again. Over his career as in LF Soriano has been worth 38 runs above average fielding wise and has averaged 3 runs saved above average. So it's easy to see that Soriano is actually an above average player in the field. The other issue a lot of people point to, his huge contract. Soriano is making an annual salary of $18 mill over this season and through 2014. Before you explode, reports say that the Cubs are willing to eat almost all of his salary just to get him out. I've even heard they'll pay his whole contract except for $3 million. That could be huge value because it's not going to take any good prospects whatsoever to get it done. The only drawback is that he is 36 years old and will be 38 when his deal expires. He hasn't declined really yet but it's still a risk but they took the same risk with Wandy Rodriguez. Also he has a full no-trade clause but I don't think he'd miss a chance to join a pennant race.
I think this is currently plan C for the Pirates behind Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence (John Perroto reported we're in on both) and it appears we can't match on a Victorino trade so he's out. Even though we haven't been linked to him I think he'a being considered. Remember, Wandy to the Pirates wasn't talked about much either until it happened. Contrary to popular opinion I think this would be a perfect target for the Bucs if the Cubs eat a lot of salary and I'm kinda hoping it happens unless we can get one of the mentioned above really cheap.
Soriano is killing it again with his bat this year like usual. He has 19 HRs 58 RBIs a .274 avg. and .827 OPS. That's perfect numbers for a cleanup guy. Batting has never been the problem for Alfonso but a lot of people will tell you he's a below average fielder including me but I was surprised to learn that this is not the case. This year playing LF Soriano has been worth 3 runs above average and has also saved 3 runs above average from LF. It's a fluke right? Think again. Over his career as in LF Soriano has been worth 38 runs above average fielding wise and has averaged 3 runs saved above average. So it's easy to see that Soriano is actually an above average player in the field. The other issue a lot of people point to, his huge contract. Soriano is making an annual salary of $18 mill over this season and through 2014. Before you explode, reports say that the Cubs are willing to eat almost all of his salary just to get him out. I've even heard they'll pay his whole contract except for $3 million. That could be huge value because it's not going to take any good prospects whatsoever to get it done. The only drawback is that he is 36 years old and will be 38 when his deal expires. He hasn't declined really yet but it's still a risk but they took the same risk with Wandy Rodriguez. Also he has a full no-trade clause but I don't think he'd miss a chance to join a pennant race.
I think this is currently plan C for the Pirates behind Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence (John Perroto reported we're in on both) and it appears we can't match on a Victorino trade so he's out. Even though we haven't been linked to him I think he'a being considered. Remember, Wandy to the Pirates wasn't talked about much either until it happened. Contrary to popular opinion I think this would be a perfect target for the Bucs if the Cubs eat a lot of salary and I'm kinda hoping it happens unless we can get one of the mentioned above really cheap.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Where do the Pirates go from Here? What about Shin-Soo Choo?
The Pirates traded Rudy Owens, Robbie Grossman, and Colton Cain to the Astros for Wandy Rodriguez. I personally like the trade. Wandy is a very good #3 pitcher who could be a #2 on some teams. And we gave up a pitcher who can be a #3 at best (Owens), an outfielder who can be a solid MLB player but could just as easily flop (Grossman), and a lower to mid tier pitcher (Cain). Wandy is on the team through 2013 and possibly 2014 via a player option. The Pirates will only pay about half of his $30 mill he's owed for the rest of his deal. It's a good trade, but now that we have solidified the rotation, where do we go from here?
We know that the Pirates need a bat but the question is who do we get? We preferably want an OF bat or maybe 1B. The market for them is drying up quickly. Carlos Quentin signed an extension, rumors surface that Justin Upton is almost 100% sure to stay in Arizona for the year, Chase Headley has too many suitors and too high of a price, Hanley Ramirez has been traded. Who's left? Well the most likely target is Shane Victorino. He's a lead off spark plug who is a great OF. Rumor is we offered up Jared Hughes and a minor leaguer for Victorino but the Phillies want Brad Lincoln. I wouldn't do either of those deals because Victorino isn't much of an upgrade over Alex Presley. Think about that. Alex Presley. And you want to give up one of our most consistent relievers for him? Not to mention his huge salary and that he's a rental. Another possibility is Hunter Pence. Yes Pence again. He's under control through 2013. But I'm sure the price for him will be high. He's going to cost a bundle through arbitration. We'll also have to give up Marte in the deal which I also would not do but if the price is lower, I'd certainly listen. Justin Upton is still a possibility because maybe Arizona is just blowing smoke, but I think that idea is fading away fast. Giancarlo Stanton would take at least Taillon and Marte if Miamj even considered selling. So other than Victorino or Pence who could the Pirates get? What about Shin-Soo Choo?
Choo is a guy I actually really like and the Indians reportedly put him on the block. Choo currently bats lead off for the Indians but could easily move back to cleanup or #5 in the order. He's got pop in his bat and is excellent defensively. He's hit 12 HRs with 39 RBIs a .296 avg. and .871 OPS. He's a very good hitter and is having a nice bounce back from a below average year last year. He's also under control through 2013 making $4.9 mill this year and arbitration eligible next year. He's also only 29. I'll compare him to a poor man's Hunter Pence with less power. I think he's the perfect fit for the Pirates if they're interested and I don't think we'd have to part with any top prospects to get him. It would be a similar trade to the Wandy deal.
I haven't heard anything on the Pirates interest in Choo but then again there wasn't huge talk about us going after Wandy either. I'm just speculating here but I wouldn't be shocked if we suddenly jumped in on Choo since we're looking at all available bats or possibly went after/got a surprise player. Just remember I said it first if it happens!
We know that the Pirates need a bat but the question is who do we get? We preferably want an OF bat or maybe 1B. The market for them is drying up quickly. Carlos Quentin signed an extension, rumors surface that Justin Upton is almost 100% sure to stay in Arizona for the year, Chase Headley has too many suitors and too high of a price, Hanley Ramirez has been traded. Who's left? Well the most likely target is Shane Victorino. He's a lead off spark plug who is a great OF. Rumor is we offered up Jared Hughes and a minor leaguer for Victorino but the Phillies want Brad Lincoln. I wouldn't do either of those deals because Victorino isn't much of an upgrade over Alex Presley. Think about that. Alex Presley. And you want to give up one of our most consistent relievers for him? Not to mention his huge salary and that he's a rental. Another possibility is Hunter Pence. Yes Pence again. He's under control through 2013. But I'm sure the price for him will be high. He's going to cost a bundle through arbitration. We'll also have to give up Marte in the deal which I also would not do but if the price is lower, I'd certainly listen. Justin Upton is still a possibility because maybe Arizona is just blowing smoke, but I think that idea is fading away fast. Giancarlo Stanton would take at least Taillon and Marte if Miamj even considered selling. So other than Victorino or Pence who could the Pirates get? What about Shin-Soo Choo?
Choo is a guy I actually really like and the Indians reportedly put him on the block. Choo currently bats lead off for the Indians but could easily move back to cleanup or #5 in the order. He's got pop in his bat and is excellent defensively. He's hit 12 HRs with 39 RBIs a .296 avg. and .871 OPS. He's a very good hitter and is having a nice bounce back from a below average year last year. He's also under control through 2013 making $4.9 mill this year and arbitration eligible next year. He's also only 29. I'll compare him to a poor man's Hunter Pence with less power. I think he's the perfect fit for the Pirates if they're interested and I don't think we'd have to part with any top prospects to get him. It would be a similar trade to the Wandy deal.
I haven't heard anything on the Pirates interest in Choo but then again there wasn't huge talk about us going after Wandy either. I'm just speculating here but I wouldn't be shocked if we suddenly jumped in on Choo since we're looking at all available bats or possibly went after/got a surprise player. Just remember I said it first if it happens!
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Could the Pirates Trade for Two Outfielders?
It has been known for a while that the Pirates are looking to upgrade the corner outfield spots but could they upgrade both?
There have been rumors that say the Pirates think Shane Victorino is a perfect fit. If you read my trade profile on him you'd know I'm strongly opposed to that idea. However I may be changing my tune here. Alex Presley has fallen off the face of the earth and his stats are now the same as Tabata's. This leads me to believe that we really need a lead off guy. Victorino isn't great hitting for an average of .240 but he's got a good track record and has an on base percentage over .100 points over Presley and Tabata. So if the price comes down I think a Victorino trade could be beneficial, but what about the power bat?
I think that the Pirates could still trade for another outfielder. Let's be honest here, Alex Presley is a bench player. The Pirates bench is pathetic and Presley can upgrade it. I think a guy like Justin Upton, Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham, and maybe even Giancarlo Stanton with the Marlins selling, can still be had to play RF. In 3 of these 4 trades Starling Marte would probably be involved if you're wondering about that. I mean even with Victorino getting on base, who's gonna drive him in? Both OF spots are needed for upgrading and imagine a lineup going to the tune of Victorino, Walker, Cutch, and one of those 4. This team can be scoring runs left and right.
So do I think we could add 2 outfielders at the deadline. Absolutely. I think it's even probable but only if the price is right.
There have been rumors that say the Pirates think Shane Victorino is a perfect fit. If you read my trade profile on him you'd know I'm strongly opposed to that idea. However I may be changing my tune here. Alex Presley has fallen off the face of the earth and his stats are now the same as Tabata's. This leads me to believe that we really need a lead off guy. Victorino isn't great hitting for an average of .240 but he's got a good track record and has an on base percentage over .100 points over Presley and Tabata. So if the price comes down I think a Victorino trade could be beneficial, but what about the power bat?
I think that the Pirates could still trade for another outfielder. Let's be honest here, Alex Presley is a bench player. The Pirates bench is pathetic and Presley can upgrade it. I think a guy like Justin Upton, Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham, and maybe even Giancarlo Stanton with the Marlins selling, can still be had to play RF. In 3 of these 4 trades Starling Marte would probably be involved if you're wondering about that. I mean even with Victorino getting on base, who's gonna drive him in? Both OF spots are needed for upgrading and imagine a lineup going to the tune of Victorino, Walker, Cutch, and one of those 4. This team can be scoring runs left and right.
So do I think we could add 2 outfielders at the deadline. Absolutely. I think it's even probable but only if the price is right.
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Trade Profiles: Chase Headley
The Pirates have been linked to Chase Headley a lot over the last few days so I thought I'd do a quick trade profile for him. Headley is the Padres everyday third baseman and is arguably their best player. The Padres want to dump him so they can get good pieces to continue their rebuild and the Pirates are interested.
Headley's stats are not very exciting when you look at them. He has 11 HRs 47 RBIs a .268 avg. and a .793 OPS. But take into the fact that he plays in the pitcher's safe haven Petco Park and you see his stats can be a lot better. Here's an example of that. Headley is batting .333 and has an OPS of 1.033 at PNC Park. That's a HUGE difference. Headley can definitely help the offense batting cleanup and not only this year. He's under team control for two more years. My one problem with bringing in Headley is, where is he gonna play? He's a third baseman that can play LF but he's just as good out there defensively as Jones and Sutton. Move Pedro to first? I don't think he's ever going to be an everyday first baseman. So we still have that problem. Reports are they want 2 top prospects for him and I don't want to give that up for a guy who I have no clue where he'll play.
I love Headley's bat, but his OF defense where he'd most likely play is below average at best. I don't see a Headley trade happening here. The only way I see us involved in Headley is if San Diego is a third team in an Upton trade since Arizona loves Headley but have strained relations with the Padres. That's very unlikely so I don't put a lot of stock in these Headley trade rumors.
Headley's stats are not very exciting when you look at them. He has 11 HRs 47 RBIs a .268 avg. and a .793 OPS. But take into the fact that he plays in the pitcher's safe haven Petco Park and you see his stats can be a lot better. Here's an example of that. Headley is batting .333 and has an OPS of 1.033 at PNC Park. That's a HUGE difference. Headley can definitely help the offense batting cleanup and not only this year. He's under team control for two more years. My one problem with bringing in Headley is, where is he gonna play? He's a third baseman that can play LF but he's just as good out there defensively as Jones and Sutton. Move Pedro to first? I don't think he's ever going to be an everyday first baseman. So we still have that problem. Reports are they want 2 top prospects for him and I don't want to give that up for a guy who I have no clue where he'll play.
I love Headley's bat, but his OF defense where he'd most likely play is below average at best. I don't see a Headley trade happening here. The only way I see us involved in Headley is if San Diego is a third team in an Upton trade since Arizona loves Headley but have strained relations with the Padres. That's very unlikely so I don't put a lot of stock in these Headley trade rumors.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Trade Profiles: Paul Maholm
We all know Paul Maholm. He is one of the best and definitely most consistent pitchers we've had in the Burgh for all long time, and is pretty high on record leader boards for Pirates lefties all time. Paul was a fan favorite and still might be for the bandwagon fans that don't realize that he's now a Cub. I've always liked Paul Maholm and never thought he got the credit he deserved or any run support which hurt his win-loss record. I was happy however that we didn't agree to that $9 million option this offseason. The thought of having Maholm back warms my heart but let's look if we want him back.
Maholm has been up and down all year for the Cubs after some outstanding years in the Burgh (especially against the Astros). This year Maholm sports a 7-6 record with 65 punch outs a 4.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. However Paul has been heating up. In his last four starts he has only given up 2 earned runs in 22.1 innings with 16 strikeouts. Sounds like last year's Paul Maholm. Maholm signed a one year deal with Chicago for $4.25 million (same as Vargas' salary) with a club option for $6.25 million next year, ironically the same money he made with the Pirates last year. The one drawback that I don't like is his inconsistency this year. He had the best year of his career last year but isn't following up this year. He's an upgrade over Correia but I feel he's the same basically as Erik Bedard.
Would I like to have Maholm back? Absolutely I would. Great clubhouse guy and a loyal former Pirate and I still follow him on twitter as one of my favorite Pirates of my generation. His stats however indicate he may not be an upgrade over what we already have, especially since he's still pitching in the same division and not playing for a team/fans that hate him. There would be no change. For these reasons I think he's sort of a plan B or C for the Pirates and a Maholm homecoming, while it'd be fun and a fan's (like me) favorite move, is not very likely.
Maholm has been up and down all year for the Cubs after some outstanding years in the Burgh (especially against the Astros). This year Maholm sports a 7-6 record with 65 punch outs a 4.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. However Paul has been heating up. In his last four starts he has only given up 2 earned runs in 22.1 innings with 16 strikeouts. Sounds like last year's Paul Maholm. Maholm signed a one year deal with Chicago for $4.25 million (same as Vargas' salary) with a club option for $6.25 million next year, ironically the same money he made with the Pirates last year. The one drawback that I don't like is his inconsistency this year. He had the best year of his career last year but isn't following up this year. He's an upgrade over Correia but I feel he's the same basically as Erik Bedard.
Would I like to have Maholm back? Absolutely I would. Great clubhouse guy and a loyal former Pirate and I still follow him on twitter as one of my favorite Pirates of my generation. His stats however indicate he may not be an upgrade over what we already have, especially since he's still pitching in the same division and not playing for a team/fans that hate him. There would be no change. For these reasons I think he's sort of a plan B or C for the Pirates and a Maholm homecoming, while it'd be fun and a fan's (like me) favorite move, is not very likely.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Trade Profiles: Jason Vargas
Even though Erik Bedard had a good outing against the Rockies the Pirates can still use another lefty and could dump terribly inconsistent Kevin Correia. Jason Vargas is an under the radar player that deserves a very good look from the Pirates.
Vargas is a 29 year old lefty for the Seattle Mariners. He's under control for another year after this and is pretty good. To demonstrate how good he can be, let's play a game. Player A is 7-7 has 79 K's 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Player B has a 9-7 record 86 K's 4.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Guess who the players are. Player A is Wandy Rodriguez and player B is Jason Vargas. Pretty similar stats eh? Take into account that Vargas pitches in an offensively rich AL West and deals with DHs and you could argue he's better than Wandy. I've heard many clamor about bringing in Wandy but the price is way too high prospect and money wise. Why not bring in Vargas who makes half of what Wandy does and will be cheaper prospect wise?
Overall I'd love to see the Pirates sneak in and grab Jason Vargas who could become even better with a move to the NL. He's lost within the market with guys like Hamels and Greinke and could be a great find at a low price. One problem would be that Seattle asks a lot for there players. Could be hard to compromise. Being that the Pirates and Orioles are the only current teams to show serious interest in him I really like the chances of a trade for Vargas going down. Plus they owe us after ripping us off in the Jack Wilson/Ian Snell for Jeff Clement/Ronny Cedêno deal.
Vargas is a 29 year old lefty for the Seattle Mariners. He's under control for another year after this and is pretty good. To demonstrate how good he can be, let's play a game. Player A is 7-7 has 79 K's 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Player B has a 9-7 record 86 K's 4.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Guess who the players are. Player A is Wandy Rodriguez and player B is Jason Vargas. Pretty similar stats eh? Take into account that Vargas pitches in an offensively rich AL West and deals with DHs and you could argue he's better than Wandy. I've heard many clamor about bringing in Wandy but the price is way too high prospect and money wise. Why not bring in Vargas who makes half of what Wandy does and will be cheaper prospect wise?
Overall I'd love to see the Pirates sneak in and grab Jason Vargas who could become even better with a move to the NL. He's lost within the market with guys like Hamels and Greinke and could be a great find at a low price. One problem would be that Seattle asks a lot for there players. Could be hard to compromise. Being that the Pirates and Orioles are the only current teams to show serious interest in him I really like the chances of a trade for Vargas going down. Plus they owe us after ripping us off in the Jack Wilson/Ian Snell for Jeff Clement/Ronny Cedêno deal.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Trade Profiles: Shane Victorino
This is the final player that I think will be seriously on the Pirates radar. Some people may be surprised to see the Flyin' Hawaiian on this list but he is most certainly a target. His contract is up at the end of the year and with the Phillies struggling he's a good candidate for them to sell. The question is, is he a good fit for the Pirates?
Victorino has always been a great defender as the Phillies CF and would translate well to the spacious LF of PNC Park. The Pirates could use better defense in the OF for sure but they need offense to go along with it. Unfortunately that is what Victorino lacks. His stats this year are a disappointing 8 HRs 38 RBIs .244 Avg. and .683 OPS. And I used career stats to debunk this issue with Justin Upton in my first article but they don't help Victorino much. Some argue Victorino is having a down year but if you look at his career averages of a .276 Avg. and .773 OPS it seems he is having a pretty average year minus a dip in average. Here's another player that could be an OF fix. His stats this year include 6 HRs 13 RBIs a .242 Avg. and .671 OPS. Know who it is? That's Alex Presley. So that leads me to ask this question. Would Shane Victorino be an upgrade at the plate or be a flashier name that plays like Alex Presley? Plus with a large salary and supposed large asking price would his defense alone be worth it?
I don't think a trade for Victorino will happen even though we are one of few teams interested because of the salary and asking price. I think if the price comes down more teams will also get involved. And honestly I don't think he's an upgrade of what we already have. So I wouldn't trade for Victorino but if you think he can hit above his career averages in the second half, you'll disagree with me.
Victorino has always been a great defender as the Phillies CF and would translate well to the spacious LF of PNC Park. The Pirates could use better defense in the OF for sure but they need offense to go along with it. Unfortunately that is what Victorino lacks. His stats this year are a disappointing 8 HRs 38 RBIs .244 Avg. and .683 OPS. And I used career stats to debunk this issue with Justin Upton in my first article but they don't help Victorino much. Some argue Victorino is having a down year but if you look at his career averages of a .276 Avg. and .773 OPS it seems he is having a pretty average year minus a dip in average. Here's another player that could be an OF fix. His stats this year include 6 HRs 13 RBIs a .242 Avg. and .671 OPS. Know who it is? That's Alex Presley. So that leads me to ask this question. Would Shane Victorino be an upgrade at the plate or be a flashier name that plays like Alex Presley? Plus with a large salary and supposed large asking price would his defense alone be worth it?
I don't think a trade for Victorino will happen even though we are one of few teams interested because of the salary and asking price. I think if the price comes down more teams will also get involved. And honestly I don't think he's an upgrade of what we already have. So I wouldn't trade for Victorino but if you think he can hit above his career averages in the second half, you'll disagree with me.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Trade Profiles: Bryan LaHair
Yesterday I did another Chicago Cub trade target for the Pirates in the person of Ryan Dempster. Today I'm doing one on Cubs breakout 1B/OF Bryan LaHair. LaHair is a feel good story. 29 years of age, been in the minors for years, and is now having a breakout season. Makes you think of Bobby Scales from a few years back, also of the Cubs. LaHair however is a very serviceable player that the Pirates should take a good look at in the few weeks remaining until the trade deadline.
LaHair plays a position of need, 1B and a little OF, and sports a .281 Avg. 14 HRs 31 RBI and OPS of .869. He also has a low salary being below $500,000. I'm not sure how many years of team control he has left being this is his first full year in the majors. The only real thing that scares me a bit is that he's 29 and just showing this ability now. It's like a Steve Pearce situation but LaHair is producing. I just don't know if he can keep it up just like Pearce had flashes but never kept it up.
If the Pirates were to trade for LaHair I wouldn't be upset. It'd be more neutral. He can produce with the bat but doesn't scare anyone and he'd come at a cheap price because the Cubs need an everyday job for stud Anthony Rizzo. Do I see the Pirates making this move? No I don't. I think it's a little too safe for what rumors say they want to do. Again, I wouldn't be upset but I wouldn't jump for joy if we added LaHair.
LaHair plays a position of need, 1B and a little OF, and sports a .281 Avg. 14 HRs 31 RBI and OPS of .869. He also has a low salary being below $500,000. I'm not sure how many years of team control he has left being this is his first full year in the majors. The only real thing that scares me a bit is that he's 29 and just showing this ability now. It's like a Steve Pearce situation but LaHair is producing. I just don't know if he can keep it up just like Pearce had flashes but never kept it up.
If the Pirates were to trade for LaHair I wouldn't be upset. It'd be more neutral. He can produce with the bat but doesn't scare anyone and he'd come at a cheap price because the Cubs need an everyday job for stud Anthony Rizzo. Do I see the Pirates making this move? No I don't. I think it's a little too safe for what rumors say they want to do. Again, I wouldn't be upset but I wouldn't jump for joy if we added LaHair.
Trade Profiles: Ryan Dempster
It has been reported that the Pirates are looking into adding starting pitching. Any pitcher brought in would almost certainly spell the end for Kevin Correia (they still have faith in Bedard) via trade, a move to the pen, or outright release. Most reports throw out the names of Cole Hamels and Zach Greinke but I will not do posts on them because I just don't see them as viable targets. The Cubs Right Hander Ryan Dempster however could be a brilliant trade target for the Pirates.
Dempster is having a stellar year for the Cubs. He sports a 4-3 70 Ks 1.01 WHIP and and an outstanding 1.99 ERA. That's second in the league behind Jered Weaver. If Dempster was on a solid team offensively there's no doubt in my mind he'd be a Cy Young contender. So it sounds like a no brainier right? They're have to be problems right? There are. Dempster is in his late 30's so injuries are always a concern. He's also losing his strikeout numbers fast and not fanning as many as he did earlier in the year. Last and most importantly is salary. He's do to make around $14 million this year so any trade would have to involve the Cubs sending us money.
There is a boatload of interest in Dempster so it'll be hard to get him. If the Pirates could give up a mid tier prospect and get the Cubs to pay about half of his contract (much like the AJ Burnett deal) I think he could come in and add playoff experience, another mentor, and great pitching to a still young team. Someone could end up getting the next AJ Burnett and I hope it's us again.
Dempster is having a stellar year for the Cubs. He sports a 4-3 70 Ks 1.01 WHIP and and an outstanding 1.99 ERA. That's second in the league behind Jered Weaver. If Dempster was on a solid team offensively there's no doubt in my mind he'd be a Cy Young contender. So it sounds like a no brainier right? They're have to be problems right? There are. Dempster is in his late 30's so injuries are always a concern. He's also losing his strikeout numbers fast and not fanning as many as he did earlier in the year. Last and most importantly is salary. He's do to make around $14 million this year so any trade would have to involve the Cubs sending us money.
There is a boatload of interest in Dempster so it'll be hard to get him. If the Pirates could give up a mid tier prospect and get the Cubs to pay about half of his contract (much like the AJ Burnett deal) I think he could come in and add playoff experience, another mentor, and great pitching to a still young team. Someone could end up getting the next AJ Burnett and I hope it's us again.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Trade Profiles: Carlos Quentin
Yesterday I sort of kicked off this series with my article of why we should trade for Justin Upton. Today I'm going to go over my thoughts on Carlos Quentin.
Quentin has a big bat but has never developed into the star the Chicago White Sox wanted him to be. Regardless he still hammers the ball and provides plenty of power for any batting order. He's now with the Padres and has been tearing it up since coming off the DL. His numbers include a .268 Avg. 7 HRs 17 RBI and a stunning OPS of .924 in 33 games. This I remind you is at they dreaded Petco Park where it is extremely difficult to hit. If you say he's a one year wonder think again, his career line is a .253 Avg. 128 HRs 400 RBI and another stunning OPS of .850. Translate this to PNC Park and you have a very dangerous #4 hitter. The only area he struggles at is working the walk but he also doesn't strike out much so it's not really a big issue. (to view more stats visit baseball-reference.com which I use as my source)
The price for Quentin should be relatively low because he would be a rental player. Think about when we traded for Ryan Ludwick last year (also of the Padres). Ludwick was in a little less of a demand and we were able to get him for what eventually became cash. I think we'd have to give up a little more for Quentin, like a player to be named later who's a mid tier prospect or more cash. So the price of bringing in Quentin to play a position of need (OF) and hit the ball very well and far on this team would be well worth it.
Overall I think there is a good shot that this is the deal we make. If I were to put odds on it I'd say there's a 40% chance this gets done and 5% on Upton. Would I rather have Upton? Sure I would and I'd still deal for him first but getting a guy like Quentin at a lower price could be just as effective but only in the short term.
Quentin has a big bat but has never developed into the star the Chicago White Sox wanted him to be. Regardless he still hammers the ball and provides plenty of power for any batting order. He's now with the Padres and has been tearing it up since coming off the DL. His numbers include a .268 Avg. 7 HRs 17 RBI and a stunning OPS of .924 in 33 games. This I remind you is at they dreaded Petco Park where it is extremely difficult to hit. If you say he's a one year wonder think again, his career line is a .253 Avg. 128 HRs 400 RBI and another stunning OPS of .850. Translate this to PNC Park and you have a very dangerous #4 hitter. The only area he struggles at is working the walk but he also doesn't strike out much so it's not really a big issue. (to view more stats visit baseball-reference.com which I use as my source)
The price for Quentin should be relatively low because he would be a rental player. Think about when we traded for Ryan Ludwick last year (also of the Padres). Ludwick was in a little less of a demand and we were able to get him for what eventually became cash. I think we'd have to give up a little more for Quentin, like a player to be named later who's a mid tier prospect or more cash. So the price of bringing in Quentin to play a position of need (OF) and hit the ball very well and far on this team would be well worth it.
Overall I think there is a good shot that this is the deal we make. If I were to put odds on it I'd say there's a 40% chance this gets done and 5% on Upton. Would I rather have Upton? Sure I would and I'd still deal for him first but getting a guy like Quentin at a lower price could be just as effective but only in the short term.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Why the Pirates Should Trade For Justin Upton
I've seen many different posts from other Pirate bloggers/reporters that we should not trade for Justin Upton. I am part of the minority that disagrees with this. It's no doubt that Justin Upton is a star OF for Arizona and is still only 24 years old. The three main reasons that people think it is a bad idea to trade for Upton, that I've gathered, are that he is too expensive prospect wise, too expensive salary wise, and is not as much of a superstar as he is portrayed. I'll start with the prospect issue first.
It has been said over and over that the Pirates can not sell the farm for one player. I think that time as passed and this team has much more depth than people think. The thought is that a trade that would land the Pirates Upton would consist of Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Robbie Grossman, and Rudy Owens. With this scenario, the Pirates still have a pretty strong farm system. You lose Taillon but still have Gerritt Cole, Luis Heredia, and most likely Mark Appel. You lose Marte but still have a strong prospect in Josh Bell, plus Upton takes that role since he's signed through 2015. You lose Grossman but still have Gregory Polanco. You lose Rudy Owens but still have Jeff Locke and Justin Wilson. That's not to mention Alen Hanson and Kyle McPherson still in the system. Another factor people overlook is the draft picks we will get over the years Upton is still here and prospects who can breakout like Hanson did this year. So my point is we would still have a pretty strong farm system even after a potential Upton deal. I also think we may be overestimating what the Diamondbacks may want for Upton. I think that they really don't want him and are making it public to try and get the kings ransom they're looking for. I think it's a slight overestimate and that if Arizona had the offer of Marte, Hanson, Grossman, and Owens in front of them they'd jump on it and we can keep Taillon.
Let's move on to the salary issue. Upton is signed to a similar deal to Cutch. Many think we cannot afford to bring in Upton long term. The team budget is close to $60 million right now if I'm not mistaken and I believe it can get up to $80 million at a max. With that budget I believe we can keep Cutch, Upton, JMac, Walker and Pedro long term or at the least until Cole and others are out of team control. I think it's the least significant issue of the three above because we can also trade any of them even if we can't afford them. It's not a huge issue to me.
Lastly, I'll look at the production issue. Upton is having a down year and some stats seem to point to Upton being well overrated. I see this as the same situation as Kevin Youkilis this year. Youk has been a strong hitter throughout the year but was having a down year. It was mostly because the team and management lost faith in him and gave him no support. It's hard to perform when no one believes in you. It's the same thing with Upton. The Diamondbacks have become frustrated with Upton's slow start and are losing faith fast in him. A change of scenery would be nice for Upton just as it has for Youkilis. I'll say this, I'm not a stats guy and I don't know a lot about them but I'll let these speak for themselves. The order of the stats go as follows and are from baseball_reference.com:
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
Kevin Youkilis
2012 33 BOS AL 42 165 146 25 34 7 1 4 14 0 0 14 39 .233 .315 .377 .692 84 55 4 4 0 1 0 53
2012 33 CHW AL 13 55 49 9 17 2 0 3 14 0 0 5 7 .347 .418 .571 .990 163 28 0 1 0 0 1 5/3
Youk has shown a very large star increase since going to a team that has wanted him. I think a deal like this for Upton would produce the same result making him far worth his contract. Here's some stats I've included for Upton just showing what he is capable of doing. Same source and same order:
Justin Upton
2007 19 ARI NL 43 152 140 17 31 8 3 2 11 2 0 11 37 .221 .283 .364 .647 62 51 3 1 0 0 4 9
2008 20 ARI NL 108 417 356 52 89 19 6 15 42 1 4 54 121 .250 .353 .463 .816 107 165 3 4 0 3 6 9
2009 21 ARI NL 138 588 526 84 158 30 7 26 86 20 5 55 137 .300 .366 .532 .899 129 280 10 2 1 4 3 *9/D AS,MVP-25
2010 22 ARI NL 133 571 495 73 135 27 3 17 69 18 8 64 152 .273 .356 .442 .799 110 219 20 4 1 7 5 *9/D
2011 23 ARI NL 159 674 592 105 171 39 5 31 88 21 9 59 126 .289 .369 .529 .898 139 313 8 19 0 4 9 *9 AS,MVP-4,SS
2012 24 ARI NL 79 331 289 54 79 12 2 7 37 10 8 33 74 .273 .353 .401 .755 100 116 2 5 0 4 3 *9
Overall do I think an Upton trade will happen to the Pirates? No I don't, but I think if they have the chance, they should jump on it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)