I've seen many different posts from other Pirate bloggers/reporters that we should not trade for Justin Upton. I am part of the minority that disagrees with this. It's no doubt that Justin Upton is a star OF for Arizona and is still only 24 years old. The three main reasons that people think it is a bad idea to trade for Upton, that I've gathered, are that he is too expensive prospect wise, too expensive salary wise, and is not as much of a superstar as he is portrayed. I'll start with the prospect issue first.
It has been said over and over that the Pirates can not sell the farm for one player. I think that time as passed and this team has much more depth than people think. The thought is that a trade that would land the Pirates Upton would consist of Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte, Robbie Grossman, and Rudy Owens. With this scenario, the Pirates still have a pretty strong farm system. You lose Taillon but still have Gerritt Cole, Luis Heredia, and most likely Mark Appel. You lose Marte but still have a strong prospect in Josh Bell, plus Upton takes that role since he's signed through 2015. You lose Grossman but still have Gregory Polanco. You lose Rudy Owens but still have Jeff Locke and Justin Wilson. That's not to mention Alen Hanson and Kyle McPherson still in the system. Another factor people overlook is the draft picks we will get over the years Upton is still here and prospects who can breakout like Hanson did this year. So my point is we would still have a pretty strong farm system even after a potential Upton deal. I also think we may be overestimating what the Diamondbacks may want for Upton. I think that they really don't want him and are making it public to try and get the kings ransom they're looking for. I think it's a slight overestimate and that if Arizona had the offer of Marte, Hanson, Grossman, and Owens in front of them they'd jump on it and we can keep Taillon.
Let's move on to the salary issue. Upton is signed to a similar deal to Cutch. Many think we cannot afford to bring in Upton long term. The team budget is close to $60 million right now if I'm not mistaken and I believe it can get up to $80 million at a max. With that budget I believe we can keep Cutch, Upton, JMac, Walker and Pedro long term or at the least until Cole and others are out of team control. I think it's the least significant issue of the three above because we can also trade any of them even if we can't afford them. It's not a huge issue to me.
Lastly, I'll look at the production issue. Upton is having a down year and some stats seem to point to Upton being well overrated. I see this as the same situation as Kevin Youkilis this year. Youk has been a strong hitter throughout the year but was having a down year. It was mostly because the team and management lost faith in him and gave him no support. It's hard to perform when no one believes in you. It's the same thing with Upton. The Diamondbacks have become frustrated with Upton's slow start and are losing faith fast in him. A change of scenery would be nice for Upton just as it has for Youkilis. I'll say this, I'm not a stats guy and I don't know a lot about them but I'll let these speak for themselves. The order of the stats go as follows and are from baseball_reference.com:
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
Kevin Youkilis
2012 33 BOS AL 42 165 146 25 34 7 1 4 14 0 0 14 39 .233 .315 .377 .692 84 55 4 4 0 1 0 53
2012 33 CHW AL 13 55 49 9 17 2 0 3 14 0 0 5 7 .347 .418 .571 .990 163 28 0 1 0 0 1 5/3
Youk has shown a very large star increase since going to a team that has wanted him. I think a deal like this for Upton would produce the same result making him far worth his contract. Here's some stats I've included for Upton just showing what he is capable of doing. Same source and same order:
Justin Upton
2007 19 ARI NL 43 152 140 17 31 8 3 2 11 2 0 11 37 .221 .283 .364 .647 62 51 3 1 0 0 4 9
2008 20 ARI NL 108 417 356 52 89 19 6 15 42 1 4 54 121 .250 .353 .463 .816 107 165 3 4 0 3 6 9
2009 21 ARI NL 138 588 526 84 158 30 7 26 86 20 5 55 137 .300 .366 .532 .899 129 280 10 2 1 4 3 *9/D AS,MVP-25
2010 22 ARI NL 133 571 495 73 135 27 3 17 69 18 8 64 152 .273 .356 .442 .799 110 219 20 4 1 7 5 *9/D
2011 23 ARI NL 159 674 592 105 171 39 5 31 88 21 9 59 126 .289 .369 .529 .898 139 313 8 19 0 4 9 *9 AS,MVP-4,SS
2012 24 ARI NL 79 331 289 54 79 12 2 7 37 10 8 33 74 .273 .353 .401 .755 100 116 2 5 0 4 3 *9
Overall do I think an Upton trade will happen to the Pirates? No I don't, but I think if they have the chance, they should jump on it.
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